Will winds of economic change affect RI?

STORY OF THE WEEK: While inflation, immigration, abortion rights and the future of democracy are the top issues in the presidential race, the disruption of the American economy makes for a strong subtext. On one hand, unemployment remains low and the U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations. But Democrats and Republicans alike presided over the loss of tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the years after NAFTA came into effect in 1994. That made it more difficult for people without a college degree to get a good job and fueled support for movements across the ideological spectrum, ranging from Occupy Wall Street to the rise of Trumpism. It’s no coincidence that Donald Trump touts himself as the candidate of the American worker, even as critics say his policies are anti-worker. In Rhode Island, the winds of economic change can be seen in how Hasbro is contemplating leaving the state and CVS is considering reorganizing itself. The Ocean State has struggled for decades to build a stronger economy, so it would be detrimental, to say the least, if a major employer decided to leave. At the same time, URI economics professor Leonard Lardaro said he’s more concerned about the small- and medium-sized companies that employ the most people in Rhode Island “because that’s going to make up a really large part of our future. And that’s something we have to be concerned about.”

WALL STREET/MAIN STREET: The 25th anniversary edition of the Rhode Island Standard of Need, the signature policy report from the Economic Progress Institute, this week underscored how raising a family in Rhode Island is costly. Childcare (25%) and housing (21%) take up almost half of the expenses for a single parent with a preschool child and a school-age child. The institute calls the federal poverty level an outdated yardstick since, it said, many local families with two-to-three times the FPL struggle to pay for a no-frills budget. Not surprisingly, low-income workers face an extreme challenge in paying housing costs. Measures supported in response by the Economic Progress Institute include raising the minimum wage and expanding paid leave and the earned income tax credit.

NUGGET: U.S. Rep. Seth Magaziner, who is opposed by Republican Steve Corvi, is going up this week with his first TV ad of the campaign season.

THE MIDDLE EAST: ProJo columnist Mark Patinkin traveled earlier this year to Israel, Gaza and the West Bank to interview Israelis and Palestinians. He expanded his series in the newspaper into a book, “The Holy Land at War.” During a Political Roundtable interview last week, Patinkin said one lasting impression is how the two sides are heavily influenced by the past — Israelis by the Holocaust and other attacks on Jews, and Palestinians by the loss of what they had before the 1948 war with Israel. With all eyes on Israel following an Iranian missile assault this week, Patinkin said, “Will there be a wider war? I think it depends on whether Iran will continue to counterattack. I think that’d be a huge mistake. I think the Israelis are much more capable than the Iranians of causing massive destruction against their enemy.”

WINDOW ON 2026: A lot of premature political obituaries were written for David Cicilline in 2012 when the approval rating of the then-U.S. representative was in the dumps. Cicilline wound up defeating Republican opponent Brendan Doherty by 12 points that year, 53% to 41%. Then again, Cicilline didn’t face a credible primary opponent and the latest finding from the Pell Center at Salve Regina University shows that approval for Gov. Dan McKee and Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos fell by two points since a previous poll in June. McKee’s approval/disapproval is 34/56, while the comparable numbers for Matos are 26/39. The indication from the McKee and Matos camps is that each is intent on seeking re-election, although it’s unclear if an exit strategy may emerge for either or both. While Helena Foulkes is gearing up for another run for governor, two years is an eternity in politics, and the field could shift before the next election, potentially including — if McKee drops out — House Speaker Joe Shekarchi and/or Secretary of State Gregg Amore. One certainty: the Washington Bridge remains a frustration for many Rhode Islanders, and the solution appears to be farther away than November 2026.

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT: Last week Merrick Garland became the first U.S. attorney general to visit Rhode Island since Eric Holder stopped by the Nonviolence Institute in 2011. Garland did not take questions from reporters during a mid-week press availability in U.S. Attorney Zachary Cunha’s downtown office. But Merrick did touch on a range of issues, including how violent crime — described by Donald Trump as rampant and out of control — continues to wane: “Statistics released by the FBI last week show an historic drop in homicides last year, and one of the lowest levels of violent crime in 50 years.”

HOUSING: Transit-oriented development — TOD — has gained currency as one way of addressing the housing crisis. Sometimes this happens organically. Look at how Davis Square in Somerville became a hotspot after an MBTA stop was added in the ’80s or how the Central Falls-Pawtucket rail station aids in the redevelopment of nearby mills as new housing. But efforts to move the TOD ball seem to be going slowly. In Massachusetts, the state has approved plans by 33 communities, making them eligible for grants from a $15 million fund — a small amount given the need. In Rhode Island, a Transit-Oriented Development bill became law in 2023, but the program remains in development by the state. RIPTA this week sent a news release describing a partnership with Pennrose, the developer of a project in Fox Point, which has committed to one year of buying fares for eligible residents.

BALLOT QUESTIONS: Should Rhode Island stage a constitutional convention? John Marion of Common Cause of RI and Patrick Anderson of the ProJo break down the competing arguments in a conversation with my colleague Luis Hernandez.

SHORT TAKES: -- Former Time Editor-in-Chief Nancy Gibbs is set to talk at URI in the coming week. Via release: “[She] will deliver the 2024 Christiane Amanpour Lecture on Thursday, Oct. 10, in Room 105 of the Beaupre Center for Chemical and Forensic Sciences at 5 p.m. Gibbs, the Edward R. Murrow Professor of Practice and director of the Shorenstein Center of Media, Politics and Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, will discuss ‘Our Information Emergency: Truth and Trust in a Polarized Age.’”

-- Congrats to Westerly’s Grey Sail Brewing on 10 years of producing Captain’s Daughter — my go-to at Nick-a-Nee’s.

-- Suffice it to say, Pete Rose, who died this week at 83, leaves a complicated legacy as baseball’s all-time hit king, a fierce competitor and someone who proved to be his own worst enemy by denying for years his involvement in gambling.

-- The RI Democratic Party has selected the following presidential electors: outgoing RI AFL-CIO President George Nee; state Sen. Robert Britto (D-East Providence); Darlene Allen, CEO of Adoption Rhode Island; Johnston High School history and social studies teacher Ami Gada, who happens to be the better half of RI House Majority Leader Chris Blazejewski (D-Providence). Alternates: Dr. Howard Schulman, House District 1 Committeeman and internal medicine physician with Rhode Island Hospital; and Susan Taylor, 2024 DNC Delegate, Chair of Newport Democratic City Committee, and immigration lawyer.

-- Providence Mayor Brett Smiley touted the new payment in lieu of taxes plan with Lifespan as “the first formal PILOT agreement between Lifespan and the City, providing $1.5 million in voluntary financial contributions over the next three years.” Part of the response from state Rep. Enrique Sanchez (D-Providence): “$1.5 million is nothing compared to how much billions of dollars worth of land property they’re sitting on. Time to take on another fight.”

-- Tony Cokes, a professor of modern culture and media at Brown University, was among 22 MacArthur ‘genius grant’ Fellows named this week. Via release: “Cokes plans to use some of the funding to concentrate on a long-term project focused on the legacy of Factory Records, an independent record label founded in 1978 in Manchester, England, that produced seminal albums by the bands Joy Division and New Order.”

-- Brown got an 11.3% return on its endowment — good for $728 million in investment gains — in FY24.

KICKER: Jimmy Carter this week became the first former president to reach the centennial age of 100. Carter’s standing has climbed considerably since he lost the 1980 presidential race to Ronald Reagan amid the Iran hostage crisis. He’s well known for his work with Habitat for Humanity, among other things. One other colorful element is how the Allman Brothers helped Carter to win the White House and thanks to RI’s ace music expert, my former colleague Lou Papineau, here’s a snap of the band with the future president at the Providence Civic Center in 1975.